Why it Makes Sense To Take Action Against Ebola

Risk Matrix

Should Americans be concerned about Ebola? Should we suspend visas from the hardest hit countries?

These are the questions we’re wrangling with as we face the first outbreak of Ebola in the US. The administration and his supporters in the Democrat party are attempting to portray the very question as foolish, and concerned Americans as “hysterical.” So let’s take a look at this from a rational risk assessment perspective.

Above is a standard risk assessment matrix, commonly used by businesses and organizations to assess risk. We have two attributes to assess our risk: severity, and probability, or likelihood. Clearly Ebola poses a catastrophic risk, not only because it “may cause death,” in fact a 50/50 chance of death on an individual level, but poses a systemic risk to society in many ways if a large outbreak were to occur. Last month, we could have postulated that Ebola was “unlikely” to occur in the United States as the President said, but since we have already had one case of Ebola come to the US and spread, we have to conclude that even if unlikely, it’s obviously possible, and move our probability to “seldom”. That puts us in the “high risk” category, right now, today.

Ebola_High_Risk

It also demonstrates why, no matter how many times Democrats quote figures of the numbers flu deaths each year, it remains a low risk. The risk is “negligible,” even though it is “likely to occur in time.”

FluNow we need to look forward, which all reasonable and responsible people do. Is it more likely that the disease will grow and continue to spread, or is it more likely that it will be contained and subside?

On this, there is no question, the World Health Organization has been very clear. There is no containment of Ebola in sight. Right now it has an R-0 factor of slightly over 2, which means that every person who contracts the disease spreads it to two other people. Until that number is brought below 1, the disease will continue to spread. At close to 10,000 confirmed cases, the medical system has been overwhelmed. What happens at 100,000 cases, or as the in WHO’s worst case scenario, a million cases by January? It’s literally unfathomable. Does that make it more or less likely that the disease will spread outside of it’s current borders? And what does it do to our risk assessment matrix? It’s fair to propose that the chance of the Ebola infection entering the US and spreading would go from “seldom” to “quite likely to occur in time.” Which would mean we would move into the “extreme risk” category. Additional contributing risk factors would be the uncertainties over means of transmission, the difficulty of performing human trials on a disease so deadly, and the completely unprecedented nature of the current outbreak (currently 9,000 confirmed cases, the next largest outbreak was 425 cases, according to the CDC.)

Ebola_Extreme_Risk

It should be clear by using common risk assessment, that Ebola presents a “high risk” to our country. Our leaders should treat it as such, and take every possible precaution to mitigate that risk in every possible way. The stakes are too high not to.


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A Real Constitutional Law Professor Tells it Like It Is

president_obama_extreme_on_exercise_of_authority

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Jonathan Turley, Constitutional Law Professor who voted for Obama, testifying before congress:

“It is an honor to speak with you, at what could be an historic moment. There’s a growing crisis in our system, a shifting of the balance of power, within the tri-partite system, in favor of a now dominant chief executive. While both congress and the courts have lost authority over the decades, it is this body, the congress, which has lost the most. We’re seeing the emergence of a different model of government, the model long ago rejected by the framers… the president’s pledge to effectively govern alone is alarming … when a president can govern alone, he can become a government unto himself, it is precisely the danger the framers sought to avoid…”

“people misconstrue the separation of powers regularly, it is not there to protect the institutional rights of the branches, it is there to protect individual liberty, it was created by the framers to prevent any branch from aggregating enough power to be a danger to liberty. It is not about you, it is about the people that you represent.”

Ultimately what we’re debating here is something the framers were very much familiar with. Before we came together as a nation, we had history with our predecessors in England with King James who argued that he had a royal prerogative, as to how laws would be interpreted, how they would be executed. He insisted that he could use natural reason to change laws. That is precisely what our framers rejected”

“As much as I respect the President, the arguments he is making over presidential authority are extreme and they are devoid of the limiting principles that characterize our system.”

 


Milton Friedman Kills It On Capitalism in Two and a Half Minutes


A Response on Race

ERIC HOLDER FLORIDARecently, Eric Holder spoke about¬†“racial animus” being a driving factor behind criticism of Barack Obama.

Dorothy Brown, professor of law at Emory University’s School of Law, subsequently wrote about it in a post for CNN:

“Why Holder Remark Made White People Mad:

‘This Week’ allowed many whites to hear what a black man is thinking about race. Most whites don’t know because most whites don’t have interracial conversations about race. To be fair, neither do most blacks. It’s just that we know what other blacks are thinking because, well, we talk to other blacks about race.

Let’s take a few examples that to me show unprecedented hostility directed toward the President, in my opinion, because he is black. First, the utter nonsense about the President’s birth certificate; it refuses to die — it is actively kept alive — despite all the evidence to the contrary. Second, the number of pictures or posters at rallies with the President’s face on a monkey’s body. Third, Congressman Joe Wilson yells “you lie” during the President’s State of the Union Address.”

Here is my response:

Sorry, but I’m going to be politically incorrect here.
First off ma’am, you said it – white people don’t really spend much time thinking or talking about race, but apparently black people do, a lot, it seems. Maybe they should stop talking about race and start talking about how to solve the problems in the black community. Starting with an unwed motherhood rate upwards of 70%. You can’t blame white people for that number. And that number is the primary driver of every other problem.
One big change that would make a big difference is school choice. But both President Obama and Eric Holder are working against school choice. They actively work to keep children trapped in failing government schools to appease teachers unions. Is it racist to criticize them for being against the best interests of inner city children, and against most inner city parents that support school choice? Here’s the rub – if George Bush were against school choice, you’d call it racist.
All of the examples you site could be called reprehensible for one reason or another, but none of them pertain to race. George Bush was portrayed as monkey constantly! Black Americans, sadly for them and for the country, have been conditioned to see racism everywhere. As an example – the rodeo clown incident. That clown has used that schtick with every president since Reagan. Yet with Obama, it was suddenly somehow racist. Oprah Winfrey, richest woman in the world – not the richest black woman mind you – the richest woman, worth billions, interpreted it to be racism when a shopkeeper in Switzerland couldn’t understand English well. Most of us have experienced some form of discrimination. I have been in a clothing store, without makeup, wearing sweatpants – and was treated differently then when I went in in a dressier outfit. These are just normal human things – but black people seem to automatically assume racism. It’s ridiculous – and it’s harmful to your own psyches.
Are there racists out there? Sure. Some of them are white, and some of them are black. But they are not lurking behind every tree, waiting to ruin your life. Get over it. Some people are jerks. Some people simply disagree with you.
It doesn’t matter because, ultimately, we all are responsible for making our own lives better, whatever obstacles we find in our way.
I find it especially sad that this is author is a professor, who will simply be part of perpetuating the victim mentality.


Talking Point O…

When Democrats say “rich” – they mean anyone who isn’t on welfare.


Merry Christmas

And there were in the same country shepherds abiding in the field, keeping watch over their flock by night.
And, lo, the angel of the Lord came upon them, and the glory of the Lord shone round about them: and they were sore afraid.
And the angel said unto them, Fear not: for, behold, I bring you good tidings of great joy, which shall be to all people.
For unto you is born this day in the city of David a Saviour, which is Christ the Lord.
And this shall be a sign unto you; Ye shall find the babe wrapped in swaddling clothes, lying in a manger.
And suddenly there was with the angel a multitude of the heavenly host praising God, and saying,
Glory to God in the highest, and on earth peace, good will toward men.

Luke 2:8-14

Merry Christmas!


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